Variance is a bitch - Help me!?

Deeve · 31-07-10, 02:19

Variance is a biatch, and it hits us all from time to time. I'm currently residing slap-bang in the middle of the worst downturn I've experienced in my 7-8 years playing the game, and it really hurts. A lot. It's lasted since April/May. It's affecting the main areas I play which are STTs and MTTs.

First you get angry that people call you with all kinds of shite, and of course happily bink away.

Then, after breaking a few mice, you reach acceptance. After all our hurtful mistress, which poker is, is a fickle lady. She blows hot and cold, we take the up with the downs. Yes they hurt, but get used to it!

Now I find I'm in a limbo state. Still running like shite, but also playing bad. I accept this and I've scheduled in some time next week with one of the top STT players from the US to review my game. I imagine we'll have a far bit to talk about. I'm also reading a couple of best poker books I've read again.

My question after my ample ramble is what else can I do? What else would you do? Would forum members mind if post the odd hand on the site to ensure I'm not playing like a donk? Also maybe posting HHs to the replayer?

During August I'm planning to play 30+ MTTs at the International for MTT league. This'll give me the option to play some lower buyin events which I've not played for a while.. Also maybe play a little online cash.

What else can I do? To get my head straight. I'm finding that I'm irrational and have short fuse which is now effecting personal life.

Sorry if you find this all boring, but any help would be greatly appreciated.

Hoping not to tilt off my roll! I had a spell like this last year, but it last for maybe 6 weeks. This feel endless.

Likey · 31-07-10, 02:46

I would suggest taking a break but August looks very unlikely.

Analyst · 31-07-10, 03:32

Playing 30+ MTT's in August... Deeve to top August monthly leaderboard FTW!

SageDonkey · 31-07-10, 08:23

Take 3 weeks off and don't even think about poker for the whole of that period. Get out in the sunshine and into the gym/swimming pool. Just basically get feeling good about yourself as a human and not as a poker player.

Then come back after the break, dismiss all together out of your mind the downswing and start a brand new P & L spreadsheet.

Play some inspiring music that you like and tell yourself, "A Game, bare minimum of mistakes", "A Game, bare minimum of mistakes" over and over.

Make a plan that you stick to so that you don't play too many hours each week than you really should be.

Then play 50% smaller buy ins than you were before, build up confidence and then move up again.

The downswing and your slight loss of playing form is IMO just your mind and body telling you to take a break.

Take that break and come back with a clearer and stronger mind and body.

You are a good player so you will return to winning ways and once you get back to your A game you will probably run much better too.

"You make your own luck in life".............. that's what you need to do.

jaaaaaaack · 31-07-10, 10:04

It will turn, but who knows when. If you have got to the point where you are so tilted that you just know that you will lose every single race then just dont play for a few days. Do something else this weekend,buy yourself something. Cheer yourself up.

Then apply the a game at all times. I guess you are a pxf sub, watch the Bax videos for a guy with incredible equilibrium for a couple of hours,then make sure you are not negative. Apply positivity, do what you would do if you ran hot, make your plays,take your races, stay aggressive. It will turn, and you play too well for it not to happen quickly but only play when ready to play your best.

I have been there and I feel your pain.

When you run bad you lose in key spots that pot you need to send you to the FT or to the top 3. Running good isnt about winning 90% of flips, its about winning them in bunches. You are due a bunch. GL.

Deeve · 31-07-10, 10:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Likey

I would suggest taking a break but August looks very unlikely.

That was my preferred choice, but just not feasible, I'm taking 48 hours off if that counts?!

Deeve · 31-07-10, 10:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Analyst

Playing 30+ MTT's in August... Deeve to top August monthly leaderboard FTW!

LOL I doubt that. I'm sure someone will play nearly all of them... and obv I won't cash in any at the moment! Should be fun tho'!

Deeve · 31-07-10, 10:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by SageDonkey

Take 3 weeks off and don't even think about poker for the whole of that period. Get out in the sunshine and into the gym/swimming pool. Just basically get feeling good about yourself as a human and not as a poker player.

Then come back after the break, dismiss all together out of your mind the downswing and start a brand new P & L spreadsheet.

Play some inspiring music that you like and tell yourself, "A Game, bare minimum of mistakes", "A Game, bare minimum of mistakes" over and over.

Make a plan that you stick to so that you don't play too many hours each week than you really should be.

Then play 50% smaller buy ins than you were before, build up confidence and then move up again.

The downswing and your slight loss of playing form is IMO just your mind and body telling you to take a break.

Take that break and come back with a clearer and stronger mind and body.

You are a good player so you will return to winning ways and once you get back to your A game you will probably run much better too.

"You make your own luck in life".............. that's what you need to do.

Cheers Cliff. Sadly the break i want is out of the question over the next 6 weeks, but my compromise was taking at least 2 days a week without poker.

Deeve · 31-07-10, 10:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaaaaaaack

It will turn, but who knows when. If you have got to the point where you are so tilted that you just know that you will lose every single race then just dont play for a few days. Do something else this weekend,buy yourself something. Cheer yourself up.

Then apply the a game at all times. I guess you are a pxf sub, watch the Bax videos for a guy with incredible equilibrium for a couple of hours,then make sure you are not negative. Apply positivity, do what you would do if you ran hot, make your plays,take your races, stay aggressive. It will turn, and you play too well for it not to happen quickly but only play when ready to play your best.

I have been there and I feel your pain.

When you run bad you lose in key spots that pot you need to send you to the FT or to the top 3. Running good isnt about winning 90% of flips, its about winning them in bunches. You are due a bunch. GL.

Cheers Matt. I'm already a member of poker pawnage which i can't recommend enough to MTT players and have just resigned with SNG Grinders to review my STT game.

I think one of the factors that creeps into your game when you're running and playing bad is becoming too passive for me. It's difficult to bed knowing you'll be getting called and lose.

I need a shot of Positive Mental Attitude!!

JonnyC · 31-07-10, 12:14

Stop investing too much emotion into the game. That could help a lot.

This in turn, will help your mice abuse issues.

Jimi · 31-07-10, 12:22

Its a tough one. I find it really hard to cope with the swings poker can bring too. I once spoke to an athlete regarding how he copes with injury and failure. He explained that his focus always had to remain positive, he had to continue dreaming of being stronger, faster and successful. Feeling negative never makes you play better so I guess he's definitely unto something here.

Paul R · 31-07-10, 15:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Analyst

Playing 30+ MTT's in August... Deeve to top August monthly leaderboard FTW!

My answer would be the simplest one....take a break. I often find that I get my best results after doing so. There is also the danger that in trying to fix things you start to over-analyse, and also with every bad result there is a risk that your self doubts increase and begin to play in your mind. It can cause a downswing to become a downward spiral which increases in speed.

Also, although a session with a specialist is a good idea I think there is also a danger that you will just fill your mind with more conflicting ideas and strategies to those that you have always trusted but now have begun to doubt. A bit like a golfer trying to deconstruct a swing that used to work but has now started to be mistrusted only to find that in rebuilding it things go from bad to worse (this is also happens to me lol!)

My advice would be take a complete break...two weeks...then come back and play much reduced volume for a week (and maybe then is the time to have a session with a coach when your mind is a bit clearer, refreshed and receptive to new ideas without them just further clouding the issues)

Its bad timing for you but I would think the August League is only likely to put more pressure on you to get good results when your mindset is far too negative to achieve them

Deeve · 31-07-10, 20:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonnyC

Stop investing too much emotion into the game. That could help a lot.

This in turn, will help your mice abuse issues.

Generally I think i'm able to separate the two live, but online when you can get 15 beats a minute it builds up... then the mouse gets it!

SageDonkey · 31-07-10, 21:03

Most people are saying take a break so that's probaby what you should do. Even if it's just for 10 days.

Deeve · 31-07-10, 21:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul R

My answer would be the simplest one....take a break. I often find that I get my best results after doing so. There is also the danger that in trying to fix things you start to over-analyse, and also with every bad result there is a risk that your self doubts increase and begin to play in your mind. It can cause a downswing to become a downward spiral which increases in speed.

Also, although a session with a specialist is a good idea I think there is also a danger that you will just fill your mind with more conflicting ideas and strategies to those that you have always trusted but now have begun to doubt. A bit like a golfer trying to deconstruct a swing that used to work but has now started to be mistrusted only to find that in rebuilding it things go from bad to worse (this is also happens to me lol!)

My advice would be take a complete break...two weeks...then come back and play much reduced volume for a week (and maybe then is the time to have a session with a coach when your mind is a bit clearer, refreshed and receptive to new ideas without them just further clouding the issues)

Its bad timing for you but I would think the August League is only likely to put more pressure on you to get good results when your mindset is far too negative to achieve them

I sort of wish I could take a break, but it's just the wrong time. I tend to work harder under pressure and there's probably more pressure on me right now, poker-wise, than ever before.

toukie · 31-07-10, 22:13

I agree with many others, take a break.
Playing even more tournaments is not the way forward. Forget the Tournament Race in August, there will be other months you can go for that.

All players go through bad spells, it does not necessarily mean they are playing worse, however if the bad spell is causing you to play worse you are right to be concerned.

Just look at the results in the tournament ladder of some of the leading players. They all have hot and cold spells, some months they cash in lots of tournaments, other months they don't cash at all.

After your break I would suggest trying some low stake cash at the club, 1/1 or 50p/50p Holdem. It may appear to have higher volatility than tournaments as you could easily win or lose £300 in a 1/1 game in a session, but if you play fairly tightly you will find the volatility is much lower than in tournament, as if you are a competant player it's rare to have a long run of losing sessions. Having a few winning cash game sessions will help bring your confidence back, you may even find after a while that you prefer cash.

Another think to think about. If a bad player gets lucky against you in a tournament and knocks you out, you may never get another chance against them. If that happens in a cash game you just reload, play on, and if they continue to play badly you will get chances to win it all back, sometimes with interest.

This is my findings, and I have almost given up playing tournaments, I find cash games much easier to beat.

SageDonkey · 31-07-10, 22:19

When an electrical appliance is failing to work the first thing you check is that the fuse in the plug has not blown.

To check your "plug" you need to take a break. Then if you come back from a break and you are still playing badly then you know that there is something fundamentally wrong with your game.

If you carry on playing without taking a break first and you continue to do badly you won't be able to tell whether it is due to mental burnout or not.

Deeve · 31-07-10, 23:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by SageDonkey

Most people are saying take a break so that's probaby what you should do. Even if it's just for 10 days.

Hopefully 48 hours will be enough... by the time the cards are in the air I'll have had 48 hours off. :-)

Providing I feel a bit better tomorrow that is!

Deeve · 01-08-10, 00:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by toukie

I agree with many others, take a break.
Playing even more tournaments is not the way forward. Forget the Tournament Race in August, there will be other months you can go for that.

All players go through bad spells, it does not necessarily mean they are playing worse, however if the bad spell is causing you to play worse you are right to be concerned.

Just look at the results in the tournament ladder of some of the leading players. They all have hot and cold spells, some months they cash in lots of tournaments, other months they don't cash at all.

After your break I would suggest trying some low stake cash at the club, 1/1 or 50p/50p Holdem. It may appear to have higher volatility than tournaments as you could easily win or lose £300 in a 1/1 game in a session, but if you play fairly tightly you will find the volatility is much lower than in tournament, as if you are a competant player it's rare to have a long run of losing sessions. Having a few winning cash game sessions will help bring your confidence back, you may even find after a while that you prefer cash.

Another think to think about. If a bad player gets lucky against you in a tournament and knocks you out, you may never get another chance against them. If that happens in a cash game you just reload, play on, and if they continue to play badly you will get chances to win it all back, sometimes with interest.

This is my findings, and I have almost given up playing tournaments, I find cash games much easier to beat.

Thanks Dave... I never considered myself a cash player, but having played quite a bit of cash in Vegas recently, 12 sessions or so, and not having one losing session it did occur to me that maybe I should devote more time to it.

As painful as it is right now, I do look at this like a test. Like any test I want to score well or in this case beat it. This month I'm going to try to ride the storm and i've set myself some tough yet achievable goals for the months. If I'm honest looking at them now it's a reasonably tough selection of goals, but heyho. I firmly believe that if you don't put in the hours on something then you will not get rewarded.

Should I fail those goals then I will indeed take a break at the start of September for a couple of weeks.

I'm happy to post the goals on here if people are interested... Out of interest do other people set goals each month? or just go with the flow?

I'm from a sales background and so setting goals is something I've don't for the last 15 years or so on a weekly basis. TBH, setting goals which I miss is probably one of the things that's grinding me down at the moment.

I know in essence i'm ignoring the main point of advice most people have given, something I may well regret in a few weeks!! I always have been stubborn.

Jimi · 01-08-10, 08:15

The general consensus whenever a poker player hits the wall is to take a break. It always sounds great until you realise that bills still have to be paid, your mortgage/rent and other daily expenses still need to be paid by you. I know someone will probably mention "bankroll management" but the man has been on a losing streak for months and taking a few more weeks out guarantees he cant earn (or lose) any money. Rather than just take a break, I would advice taking a job for a short while until the pressure is off.