AQs Part II: The Flop

[sonicyouth]

Follow up to http://www.gutshot.com/bforum/showthread.php?t=36933

Full Tilt Poker $32,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t8000/t16000 Blinds + t2000 - 9 players - View hand 829890
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
BB: t745787 M = 17.76
UTG: t457899 M = 10.90
Hero (UTG+1): t495438 M = 11.80
UTG+2: t309892 M = 7.38
MP1: t1013670 M = 24.14
MP2: t471240 M = 11.22
CO: t505339 M = 12.03
BTN: t257799 M = 6.14
SB: t236936 M = 5.64
Pre Flop: (t42000) Hero is UTG+1 with Q A
UTG raises to t41050, Hero calls t41050, 6 folds, BB calls t25050
Flop: (t149150) T 2 Q (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets t57888, Hero?

[CharlieT]

Surely some kind of interface between your chips and the middle of the table should occur? Possibly leaving scorch marks on the felt.

[0strich]

Now would be a good time to ask where you finished, lol.

[pokemon]

Weeee - I knew I got part 1 right.

We have flopped the nuts.

I'm just wondering how to get the money in whilst keeping their range wide.

If it was heads up I may flat but given the BB may peel with Tx and spike 2 pair I think I raise small to induce and snap a shove.

In an ideal world utg jams AK and we hold.

[sonicyouth]

Ok, we should then all agree here, was just wondering if anyone read anything on his sizing and whether he is ever betting worse with the exception of KQ/QJ/AK? But I guess it doesn't matter to much cause we got the nuts

[JonnyC]

Err his sizing is pretty scary in my eyes. I really would just flat here, we get information from the BB, if he ships and UTG ships we can fold etc

Say the BB folds then we can see if the board bricks and he leads again, in this case I would be inclined to fold. If he is drawing to beat us then he really does not have many outs (AK seems like the main reasonable hand he could be bluffing with here, in which case we do not want him to fold but I am not sure he will lead with AK here into a 2nd pos flatter).

I sincerely doubt he is betting worse than AK high here and I doubt he is doing that, although, a quick SharkScope of the villain will give you more information. If he is -ROI over a reasonable sample then I am inclined to believe he has AJ high in his post flop range too.

If he is a solid winner and he bets when a brick hits then he is confident in his hand and will be beating you way more often than not. Do you think your opponent has SharkScoped you too?

[sonicyouth]

I checked his stats during the FT bubble, he had a negative ROI over 400 comps (ABI $12)...not sure if he's checked mine, if he has, well on Tilt, I am a losing player over 140 comps

[Dru]

I prefer a smallish raise 140k ish then call if the UTG shoves

[JonnyC]

Then we make his hand easier so much easier to play.

I think with the additional information, I might be shoving the flop, if he is a serial loser, his range is not weighted towards only hands that beat you.

[Nico77]

Never folding this and bar if he holds ak/aj i'm not too worried about being outdrawn by utg, and then he only has 7/4 outs- albeit twice.

Hu easy flat for me this dry but 3 ways there is a little more chance we could be outdrawn by the likes of kj also possibly in the bb's range.

I'm probably leaning towards a smallish raise to like 150k, hoping one/both will spazz peel with draws not getting the correct price. Maybe even induce a ship with alluded fe from either player.

I know it's technically the wrong thread but i'm kinda coming round to the idea of sometimes peeling pre, esp v a complete random, not sure about here because he's described as fairly active. Never EVER 3b folding, but i guess open folding v certain nits isn't terrible. Obv when we peel as said prev it's a snap v a sqze and a snap fold v utg ship, unless utg was a maniac but then as said above we prob 3b.

[spike110302]

Sonicyouth wrote "I checked his stats during the FT bubble, he had a negative ROI over 400 comps (ABI $12)..."

Originally Posted by JonnyC

Then we make his hand easier so much easier to play.

I think with the additional information, I might be shoving the flop, if he is a serial loser, his range is not weighted towards only hands that beat you.

I think Sharkscope should be used purely as an overview guide and ROI over 400 games at low buyin is much poorer information, than current stats/playingstyle etc. Even if it were to hold some weight Sonicyouth does not state a % -ROI so if it were less than +/- 10% it is virtually meaningless. Even if he had a -ROI of 100% giving a total loss of $4800, this touney alone could turn that ROI into mush if he wins the $7k 1st prize or even one of the bigger prizes. Not enough info to label as "serial loser"
I think the description given of the villan in the previous thread, was aggressive 3 bettor against short stacks, generally tight aggressive in spots and not likely to turn up with a trash hand. Whilst I think the ultimate destination of these threads is "brag" rather than "bad beat" I think talk of having the veritable "nuts" with TPTK is shallow thinking indeed. I think call/raise/fold are all options in this situation. (Although fold is probably not my first choice!)
Les

[Potamophobia]

I raise this all day every day. I think flatting is too dangerous three-way and the BB may get fancy and put us in a tricky position. I raise for value, to define my hand and make my decisions easier, to induce a shove and because with have teh nutz0rz!

Also, his bet doesn't necessarily scream strength he could be betting smaller to try and steal the pot cheaply.

[jaaaaaaack]

If you decided tocall pre, what more could you possibly want. Ship it your bet is 3x pot so no room for anything else here, jam it in.

[joejoe]

I have no idea why people want to do anything but call here. Aside from KQ (which we're not even sure he's opening every combo of), what is he bet/getting it in with that we beat?

I think the likelyhood that we pick up another bet from hands we beat is greater than the chance of us being outdrawn

[Potamophobia]

I would raise because there is a third person in the pot and we only have top pair, it's hardly unbeatable. I wanna protect my hand and try to get more chips in the middle. HU I call.

[Y O Y O]

Call (ffs)

Check check checkedy check the turn

let one of 'em donk off on the river

Easy game innit ?

[Paul R]

I'm struggling to think of a single good reason on a final table not to jam this in a nano-second. If you called pre-flop and you have hit TPTK on this flop, what on earth are we waiting for? Get it in...if we're beat then gg ul but we want to take this down right here right now 3 handed with no messing about trying to box clever.

[Potamophobia]

No need to go all in. You'll just fold out weak hands you beat and get called when you're behind. I make it like 120,000 or so and snap if he goes all-in. If he smooths then I'm getting the rest in on the turn.